Erling Haaland (Manchester City), 21 goals
Halland ran away with the Premier League golden boot last season, scoring 36 goals in his first campaign in England. He is unlikely to challenge his record for scoring the most goals in a single Premier League campaignbut 21 makes him the favorite against this season and would be considered an unequivocal success for any other hitter in the league.
City have four games to play – against Wolves, Fulham, Tottenham and West Ham – so he could still bag a few more goals after shaking off the muscle problem that bothered him before returning for City (and to score) – against Nottingham Forest at the weekend.
Haaland has the second most strikeouts in the league this season (104), behind only Darwin Nunes (105). Although his record of 0.69 goals per game (excluding penalties) doesn’t quite live up to his expected non-penalty goals of 0.82 per 90 minutes, he will be confident of scoring a few more goals in the final weeks of the season. He easily has the highest percentage of touches in the box (28.1%) of any regular player in the league.
Say what you will about his form, but Haaland remains the man to beat.
Cole Palmer (Chelsea), 20 goals
What a season Palmer is having. While his talent was not in question Manchester City, his impact at Chelsea made people sit up and take notice. In the last few games of the season, he has almost kept pace with former teammate Haaland, a remarkable feat considering this is Palmer’s first season as a regular starter at this level.
Of course, Palmer’s production was greatly increased by penalties. His 0.45 penalty goals per 90 minutes has been improved by a full 20 players (minimum 900 minutes), perhaps taking the shine off his total a bit. Regardless, penalties are a key part of the game and when it comes to the golden boot, all goals carry equal weight. Also, his penalty shootout record of nine out of nine means he is on course to record the best record for 100% on target in a Premier League season – helped an otherwise inconsistent Chelsea side.
Nine players in the league have taken more shots than Palmer, but only two of them can better his shots-on-target ratio (46.4%). If he maintains his record of a goal every 109 minutes, he has a very good chance of at least sharing the golden boot. Chelsea still have five games to play, giving him plenty of opportunities to add to his tally.
Alexander Isaac (Newcastle), 19 goals
If Isaac continues to develop in the same way since joining Newcastle, he will become a superstar. The 24-year-old it’s already quite comfortable and has really found his groove over the past few months, scoring nine goals in his last eight Premier League games and thrusting himself into contention for the golden boot.
He is clinical and reliable in front of goal. No one else on this list has as good a hitting record this season. Isaac has scored 19 goals from 66 shots (that’s a conversion rate of 28.8% – only Chris Wood (32.4% from 37 shots) and Elijah Adebayo (32.1% from 28 shots) have scored a higher proportion of his shots among players with at least 25 attempts, though no one has registered that many efforts.
Isaac’s 19 goals have come from just 26 games, meaning he is scoring at a rate of 0.88 per 90 minutes – or a goal every 103 minutes. His non-penalty xG of 0.65 is second only to Haaland’s (0.69) among players on this list.
Newcastle’s form this season has been inconsistent but they carry a threat going forward, particularly in recent weeks, scoring four or more goals in three of their last six games. They always create opportunities – Isak is presented with 1.48 ‘big chances’ every 90 minutes, second only to Haaland (1.91). And they have games to play against teams that deny many shooting opportunities, such as Burnley, Brighton and Manchester United. Isaac’s form reached a new level at the right time.
Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa), 19 goals
Will Ollie Watkins take the Golden Boot and Player of the Season award? Phil Foden may have something to say about the latter, especially if City win the title, but Watkins is in contention for both awards. The England striker reached a new peak under Unai Emery and was one of the outstanding players in the league – and the most improved.
With 31 goals, he is the first English player not named Harry Kane to score over 30 goals in a Premier League season since Jamie Vardy helped Leicester win the title in 2015-16 (when he contributed 24 goals and six assists). Watkins is on the verge of becoming the first Villa player to score 20 goals in a Premier League season – and the first in the top flight since Peter Witt in 1981.
No player in the league could better his goalscoring performances, showing how well he combined with Leon Bailly and Moussa Diaby in Villa’s devastatingly fluid attack. None of his 19 goals have come from the spot. It might be worth having an earful with designated penalty taker Douglas Lewis over the next few days.
Watkins’ teammates clearly trust him, as 43.9% of his runs outside the box are directed at teammate passes, the fourth-highest share of all forwards (min. 900 minutes and 10+ targeted runs into the box) . His non-penalty xG of 16.04 is behind only Haaland (20.2) and Dominic Solanke (16.2), but Watkins exceeded that expectation with 2.96. He was deadly.
Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth), 18 goals
Solanke has already set a new record for most goals scored by a Bournemouth player in a top-flight season, surpassing Joshua King’s total of 16. Bournemouth are quietly having a very good season under Andoni Iraola and have even climbed into the top half of the table behind them impressive 3-0 win over Brighton at the weekend. They collected 42 points in the Premier League following their 6-1 win at Manchester City in early November; only champions Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa have collected more points in that time.
Unfortunately for Solanke, there was no goal for him against Brighton, although there will be more opportunities before the end of the season. His tally of 16 clean sheets is bettered only by Watkins (19) and Haaland (17). He has been remarkably consistent for Bournemouth, playing 3,120 minutes in the league this season, the fifth most of any outfield player. You can’t score if you don’t play and Solanke plays a lot.
He has the added motivation of trying to force his way into England’s Euro 2024 squad, although his lack of chances suggests Gareth Southgate will look elsewhere. Bournemouth have a tough run over the next few weeks – they play Arsenal, Brentford and Chelsea – but it’s been a great campaign for Solanke. He has what it takes to play at the very top and a big move could attract.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), 17 goals
There is a perception that Salah is not having a great season, but he is still in the race for the golden boot. Salah scored 17 goals and created more big chances than any other player in the division. If only his teammates were as effective. Liverpool have taken 715 shots this season, the most in the league and almost 100 more than Manchester City (621), who are second on that list.
Salah is more lethal than his team-mates – the agent of chaos that is Nunes scored 11 goals from his 105 shots, compared to Salah’s 17 from 100. Salah averages 9.1 touches in the opposition box every game, which is significant more than any of his rivals on this list (Haaland is next with 6.8), and his xG of 0.75 per 90 minutes is behind only Haaland (0.98), Isaac (0.8) and Callum Wilson ( 0.78). The downside is that his goals per game (0.68) doesn’t quite match his xG.
